Insights
|
|
Enhancing cash flow forecasting in private equity with machine learning models

Enhancing cash flow forecasting in private equity with machine learning models

Picture of Natalia Sigrist
Natalia Sigrist

Partner,
Private Equity

In contrast to liquid equities, private equity is characterised by scarce and low-frequency data with limited past history of observations. Consequently, while machine learning has gained widespread adoption in the analysis and forecasting of public equities returns, its application in private markets is more problematic.

Nonetheless, there exists an unprecedented demand within the private equity industry to leverage the power of machine learning. In the current market environment where liquidity is more irregular, investors are calling for improved cash flow visibility and more frequent updates to forecasts.

Being an early user of machine learning techniques in our investments, we have conducted extensive research in the realm of cash flow forecasting. Our work involved testing five machine learning models, employing two data scaling techniques, incorporating forecasts at varying frequencies and encompassing a multitude of independent economic variables.

To read the full paper written by Natalia Sigrist, Marco Perfetto and Alexandra Kovrigina, please contact:
clients@unigestion.com

Important information

INFORMATION ONLY FOR YOU
This document has been prepared for your information only and must not be distributed, published, reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) by recipients to any other person without the prior written consent of Unigestion. It is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of, or domiciled or located in, any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

RELIANCE ON UNIGESTION
There is no guarantee that Unigestion will be successful in achieving any investment objectives. An investment strategy contains risks, including the risk of complete loss.

Except where otherwise specifically noted, the information contained herein, including performance data and assets under management, relates to the entire affiliated group of Unigestion entities over time. Such information is intended to provide you with background regarding the services, investment strategies and personnel of the Unigestion entities. No guarantee is made that all or any of the individuals involved in generating the performance on behalf of one or more Unigestion entities will be involved in managing any specific client account on behalf of another Unigestion entity.

NOT A RECOMMENDATION OR OFFER
This is a promotional statement of our investment philosophy and services only in relation to the subject matter of this presentation. It constitutes neither investment advice nor recommendation. This document represents no offer, solicitation or suggestion of suitability to subscribe in either the investment vehicles to which it refers or to any securities or financial instruments described herein. Any such offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase shall be made only by formal offering documents, which include, among others, a confidential offering memorandum, limited partnership agreement (if applicable), investment management agreement (if applicable), operating agreement (if applicable), and related subscription documents (if applicable). Such documentation contains additional information material to any decision to invest. Please contact your professional adviser/consultant before making an investment decision.

Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell such securities and is included for illustration purposes only.

RISKS
Where possible we aim to disclose the material risks pertinent to this document. The views expressed in this document do not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets and developments referred to in it. Unigestion maintains the right to delete or modify information without prior notice. The risk management practices and methods described herein are for illustrative purposes only and are subject to modification.

Investors shall conduct their own analysis of the risks (including any legal, regulatory, tax or other consequences) associated with an investment and should seek independent professional advice. Some of the investment strategies or financial instruments described or alluded to herein may be construed as high risk and not readily realisable investments, and may experience substantial & sudden losses including total loss of investment. These are not suitable for all types of investors. Unigestion has the ability in its sole discretion to change the strategies described herein.

PAST PERFORMANCE
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, the value of investments, can fall as well as rise, and there is no guarantee that your initial investment will be returned.  Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations.

NO INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION OR REPRESENTATION
No separate verification has been made as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein.  Data and graphical information herein are for information only and may have been derived from third party sources. Unigestion takes reasonable steps to verify, but does not guarantee, the accuracy and completeness of information from third party sources. As a result, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is or will be made by Unigestion in this respect and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted. All information provided here is subject to change without notice. It should only be considered current as of the date of publication without regard to the date on which you may access the information. An investment with Unigestion, like all investments, contains risks, including total loss for the investor.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This document may contain forward-looking statements, including observations about markets and industry and regulatory trends as of the original date of this document. Forward-looking statements may be identified by, among other things, the use of words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “believes,” or “estimates,” or the negatives of these terms, and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements reflect Unigestion’s views as of such date with respect to possible future events and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the impact of competitive products, market acceptance risks and other risks. Actual results could differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of factors beyond a strategy’s or Unigestion’s control. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. No party has an obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements in this document.

TARGET RETURNS
Targeted returns reflect subjective determinations by Unigestion based on a variety of factors, including, among others, internal modeling, investment strategy, prior performance of similar products (if any), volatility measures, risk tolerance and market conditions. Target returns are based on Unigestion’s analytics including upside, base and downside scenarios and might include, but are not limited to, criteria and assumptions such as macro environment, enterprise value, turnover, EBITDA, debt, financial multiples and cash flows. Targeted returns are not intended to be actual performance and should not be relied upon as an indication of actual or future performance. 

USE OF INDICES
Information about any indices shown herein is provided to allow for comparison of the performance of the strategy to that of certain well-known and widely recognized indices. There is no representation that such index is an appropriate benchmark for such comparison. You cannot invest directly in an index and the indices represented do not take into account trading commissions and/or other brokerage or custodial costs. The volatility of the indices may be materially different from that of the strategy. In addition, the strategy’s holdings may differ substantially from the securities that comprise the indices shown.

ASSESSMENTS
Unigestion may, based on its internal analysis, make assessments of a company’s future potential as a market leader or other success.  There is no guarantee that this will be realised.

No prospectus has been filed with a Canadian securities regulatory authority to qualify the distribution of units of this fund and no such authority has expressed an opinion about these securities. Accordingly, their units may not be offered or distributed in Canada except to permitted clients who benefit from an exemption from the requirement to deliver a prospectus under securities legislation and where such offer or distribution would be prohibited by law. All investors must obtain and carefully read the applicable offering memorandum which contains additional information needed to evaluate the potential investment and provides important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses.

Legal Entities Disseminating This Document

United Kingdom
This material is disseminated in the United Kingdom by Unigestion (UK) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”).

This information is intended only for professional clients and eligible counterparties, as defined in MiFID directive and has therefore not been adapted to retail clients.

United States
In the United States, Unigestion is present and offers its services in the United States as Unigestion (US) Ltd, which is registered as an investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and/or as Unigestion (UK) Ltd., which is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC.  All inquiries from investors present in the United States should be directed to clients@unigestion.com. This information is intended only for institutional clients that are qualified purchasers as defined by the SEC and has therefore not been adapted to retail clients.

European Union
This material is disseminated in the European Union by Unigestion Asset Management (France) SA which is authorized and regulated by the French “Autorité des Marchés Financiers” (“AMF”).

This information is intended only for professional clients and eligible counterparties, as defined in the MiFID directive and has therefore not been adapted to retail clients.

Canada
This material is disseminated in Canada by Unigestion Asset Management (Canada) Inc. which is registered as a portfolio manager and/or exempt market dealer in nine provinces across Canada and also as an investment fund manager in Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland & Labrador. Its principal regulator is the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”).

This material may also be distributed by Unigestion SA which has an international advisor exemption in Quebec, Saskatchewan and Ontario. Unigestion SA’s assets are situated outside of Canada and, as such, there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against it.

Switzerland
This material is disseminated in Switzerland by Unigestion SA which is authorized and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (“FINMA”).

Document issued May 2024.

Related insight

Unigestion  is delighted to announce the appointment of Jean-Pierre Mustier and Bernard Gault as Non-executive Directors of Unigestion Holding SA.

[…]

If investors were expecting the private equity market to jump back into action in 2024, they will have been disappointed.

After a subdued 2023, overall private equity investment and exit activity in the first quarter of 2024 continued to be challenged. However, there were bright areas in some segments of the market.

[…]

Unigestion, the independent asset manager specialising in mid-market private equity transactions, has appointed Jordan Dimmock as a senior investment professional in its global secondaries team.

[…]

In the second half of 2023, we saw an increase in secondaries volume, driven by LP stakes. Why is this and what have been the key drivers of recent activity in the secondaries market around the globe?

[…]

Subscribe